87 years old and going strong My father is 87 years old and appears to be going strong. Many people believe that this fact would indicate that I too can look forward to a long life. When considering their own life expectancy, many reflect on the age now or at the time of death of […]

87 years old and going strong My father is 87 years old and appears to be going strong. Many people believe that this fact would indicate that I too can look forward to a long life. When considering their own life expectancy, many reflect on the age now or at the time of death of their parents and grandparents.Two things can be said about this observation: Firstly, this expectation has no merit. Genetics is a poor predictor of life expectancy, and it is eclipsed by two significantly more important factors – lifestyle and connection. Secondly, this is a typical example of the anchoring bias – using a fact that may or may not be relevant to draw conclusions about the present and to make predictions about the future.  The all too common ‘anchoring bias’ occurs when – ‘people rely too much on pre-existing information or the first information they find…