There are a lot of conspiracy theories floating around these days. Perhaps there always has been. My favourite Australian Prime Minister Paul Keating once said – ‘if it is a choice between a conspiracy and a stuff-up, I will pick a stuff -up every time.’ The point was – while attractive conspiracies are unlikely. Stuff-ups […]

There are a lot of conspiracy theories floating around these days. Perhaps there always has been. My favourite Australian Prime Minister Paul Keating once said – ‘if it is a choice between a conspiracy and a stuff-up, I will pick a stuff -up every time.’The point was – while attractive conspiracies are unlikely. Stuff-ups on the other hand are much more likely.In some respects Hanlon’s Razor is a variation on this theme – ‘Never attribute to malice what could be explained by carelessness.’ It suggests that when something goes wrong, carelessness is more likely than malice.Both Keating’s quote and Hanlon’s Razor focus on what is more probable. I would argue that probability is one of the most important concepts in life. We can rarely be certain. The best we can ever do is consider the probabilities. Certainty is irrational. Probability is entirely rational.